The Age of Turbulence

It seems Talk Radio 702 has once again hit the nail on the head. Government's slogan; Age of Hope has prove to be the exact opposite. These are the exact words of 702's advert of their symposium with Dr. Alan Greenspan. Here goes....We're in a recession, left in the dark, taxed to death, and there are too many potholes on the road to the future.

There couldn't be a clearer picture of the state of affairs here at home! It is absolutely depressing to be a South African at the moment. President Thabo Mbeki's Age of Hope is invisible. The 2009 general election do not seem to be holding a positive future for us all. The tripartite alliance says it will support Jacob Zuma all the way to court till he enter the Union Buildings as President of the Republic.

There is still poverty and the huge gap between the rich and the poor. The electricity costs are crazy. I found myself nodding when I heard the SACP suggesting that President Mbeki be recalled. But then I got back to my senses and thought who will lead us?

Is he under siege?

The new ANC executive committee has put its foot down and told Mbeki's cabinet to listen or face being ousted. Now Independent Democrat leader says she will pass a motion of no confidence in Parliament. This, in a bid to get President Thabo Mbeki and the rest of his cabinet to resign. Well, the latest spate of power outages will certainly be one thing opposition parties will use against the ANC for a very long time. The power outages are costing our economy billions and that's why De Lille says Mbeki should quit. Power Cuts here in South Africa are making international headlines. And amid such dire times, there are those optimist who just say it is because of our booming economy that we have blackouts.

Government has taken responsibility for the insufficient electricity supply. They admitted that they ignored Eskom's for government to invest in more power. This was in the late 1990s. Eskom now has had no choice but to implement load shedding. The mining sector was a target for this process. Billions of rands are lost on a daily basis. The trade union federation is barking at the government - saying hundreds of jobs will be lost if no solution comes up. And now, Ms De Lille thinks heads must roll for this.

Gwede Mantashe, Jacob Zuma and all his friends won't have to come up with a scheme to oust Mbeki before 2009. De Lille beat them to it. Right now, no one is ranting and raving about De Lille's latest outburst. If the ID's motion for a vote of no confidence in the Mbeki Presidency is supported by the majority of Parliament, it will mean an early election for us.

It will be interesting to see what Mbeki says in his State of the nation. He is no longer the ANC president and the new committe has made demands. I am watching with keen interest if he will address any of the demands. The one demand I will highlight is the deadline they gave government to disband the Scorpions. The very same Scorpions that got Jacob Zuma into trouble. Many political commentators say the ANC is retaliating to restore Zuma's already ruined reputation.

A house on fire!

The Luthuli House, the headquarters of the ANC is in tatters! After President Thabo Mbeki's humiliating defeat at the Limpopo Conference, the ANC is just not the good old ANC. The challenges in leadership are not particularly new in this organisation. But this time, they are more fierce than before. We now have a president of a country who sits at the union buildings. On the other hand there is party president who calls the shots from Luthuli house. There are threats of recalling Thabo Mbeki if he does not dance to the music played by Luthuli house.

I tend to agree with Mbeki's mother when she says the electoral commission should rethink our system. We need to elect an individual directly as citizens. The party route does not necessarily reflect the countries choice. She sounded very dignified when she came to his son's defence. Almost like Lioness roaring to chase opportunistic Hyenas from her cub!

It seems not even Nelson Mandela could defuse the tensions at Luthuli House. My guess is that he was advised not to intervene. His direct intervention would have been ignored. He would then suffer the same humiliation that Thabo Mbeki endured when he lost to Zuma.

She's A Babe!

We are so absorbed by the succession debate, the arms deal and Government's cat fights with the media. So absorbed, that we are forgetting to honour the stalwarts of our political history. Just because we've honoured the great OR Tambo, Chris Hani and Chief Albert Luthuli - we should not forget those who are still alive today.

I was nauseated by those aligned with the ruling party, saying that Helen Suzman enjoyed benefits of being white during the repressive years of apartheid. Well, she also used her skin colour to be allowed to visit Nelson Mandela in prison! Did you think about that! People who still refuse to see the great efforts of other people because of the colour of one's skin is slowing down the progress of this country.

She turned 90 this week. We enjoy 13 years of democracy and she endured 13 years as the sole opposition of apartheid from 1961 to 1974. Her efforts as an anti-apartheid activist did not end there! She continued to hammer the National Party government for its apartheid policies.

She was there when Dimitri Tsafendas stabbed Hendrik Verwoerd with a dagger while parliament was in session. She saw them come and go: all these apartheid leaders knew her and she gave them a run for their money! She deserves more recognition than she is getting. South Africans tend to be selective of their causes. We like being victims of apartheid, we just don't want to see ourselves as victors. And that is the reason why we overlook the efforts of the Helen Suzmans and all those South Africans who challenged the apartheid government when the ANC, the PAC and other political parties were banned.

I was certainly not born when she was elected into Parliament. But I today enjoy freedom of speech among many other rights, because of the legacy she left in the politics of this country. She enriches the history of this nation. My children will know about her. - Picture courtesy of Associated Press

Arms deal haunts the ANC

Some have dubbed it as a stain that will not go away! The Arms Deal saga seems to be giving some politicians a serious migraine! It is setting in just before the ANC conference, where we hope to see the future president of the country being elected. Former ANC MP is not making matter any better for the ANC. He released a book After the Party in which he alleges that Minister in the Presidency ordered that the proposed multi-agency probe of the The Arms Deal be dashed.

Since the 1999, when Patricia de Lille revealed the corruption allegation in Parliament , Tony Yengeni, former ANC chief whip, was convicted and sentenced to four years in prison. Schabir Shaik, who is a friend and former financial advisor to the ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma was also convicted and now serving a 15 year prison term. Zuma himself was fired as deputy president of the country and cabinet member. Last week Talk Radio 702 reported that it is only a matter of time before the National prosecuting Authority charges Zuma. This after the Supreme Court of Appeal dimissed Zuma's appeal.

Patricia de Lille last week made another revelation on the arms deal. She says the ANC and one of Nelson Mandela's foundations inappropriately received money from a German company during the arms deal. She claimed to have evidence to support her allegations.

Feinstein says some of the money the ANC received was used to fund election campaigns . He claims Essop Pahad intimidated people who wanted to get to the bottom of the arms deal probe. Pahad was quoted using vulgar, telling MPs and Scopa to abondone their mission to investigate the arms deal. Pahad denied ever intimidating anyone. And said that no one would ever find evidence implicating the president or the ANC.

Not so sweet November for Zuma

The November month will go down in history as the worst month for ANC president Jacob Zuma. Today the Supreme Court of Appeal ruled in favour of the NPA, saying the raids that were conducted by the scorpions on his premises and that of his lawyers were lawful. This means evidence acquired in those raids may now be used against him. However, the NPA will have to charge Zuma once again.

This new twists to the Zuma saga comes a month before the ANC goes to the Limpopo conference to elect its new leadership. The ANC's newly elected president is more likely to be the country;s president in 2009. Zuma's political ambitions will certainly take a nose-dive if he is charged before the ANC conference. The ANC has not said anything meaningful as yet, except that they respect the judgement. The Friends of the Jacob Zuma trust with lousy PR told the SABC that "it is not the end of the road for Zuma".

It's 10 points to the Mbeki camp! Another will follow if and when the NPA decides to charge the embattled politician. It however looks like there will be those die hard supporters for this man. - Picture courtesy of SABCnews.com

On your marks, get set!

The landscape of South African politics is sure to change after the ANC conference in December. I am personally delighted to be part of this historic moment. It is still obvious that the ANC will remain the ruling party, but it's any one's guess who will succeed President Thabo Mbeki. He says if asked he will stand for ANC presidency. Let's take a look at people who may become the president of the country and how things night turn out if they are elected.

We'll start with Jacob Zuma: He played a crucial role in fight against the repressive regime. This man also played a role in easing the tension in Burundi, where the Hutu rebels were attacking the government. When he was elected as the deputy president of the ANC in 1997, he was seen as Mbeki's successor in 2009. His political career was bruised when he was accused of rape. His reputation took a nose-dive when it emerged that he had slept with an HIV positive woman without using a condom. Before then, Mbeki had fired him as his deputy and from Cabinet. This was after two week the Durban High Court found Zuma's financial advisor and close aide guilty on corruption and fraud charges. Zuma was implicated during the trial. Zuma was found not guilty on the rape charges and the corruption case against him were thrown out of court.

Tension mounted on the ruling party as it was divided into the Mbkei and Zuma camps. Zuma took advantage of his popularity, which demeaned Thabo Mbeki. The tripartite alliance also had divided views on the future of the ANC leadership. Investors have expressed nefgative implications if Zuma became president. Zuma recently outlined his intention and policies if he is elected as president of the coutry. Among his policies is the possibility to bring back the death penalty.

ANC President Thabo Mbeki right behind Zuma in terms of nominations. Mbeki only received nomination from four provinces, while Zuma got support from the remainig five.Mbeki topped the list in Limpopo, but it was a close call as Mpumalanga also voted for Zuma. Both candidates enjoy strong support in the Northern Cape, but in the end Zuma came out top. The North West and the Western Cape backed Mbeki.

Zuma made a strong show across provinces. Even where he lost, it was not by a huge margin. He also has the support ANC Youth League. The ANC Women's League has an equal number of voting delegates and the National Executive Committee has 66 votes. The Provincial Executive Committees will have 198 votes. Analysts say the incumbent ANC President has several options.

"The first one is simply to withdraw at this stage, so that he saves his legacy and avoid humiliation of losing as a sitting President of the ANC and the country. The other one is for him to soldier on into the conference in a manner that is quite risky - and when he withdraws, he would have to think of who is the other candidate within his group's list that he can endorse," says Somadoda Fikeni, a political analyst.

A candidate long favoured by Mbeki and the Womens' League, is Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. The Womens' League is expected to push its agenda especially among women delegates in Polokwane and then there is the possibility of nominations from the floor. Beyond Polokwane there are the 2009 general elections. That is when the public will express their opinions on the outcome of the National Conference.


Kgalema Motlanthe: This man on more than occasion publicly defended Jacob Zuma against his critics. Although Motlanthe features as a favourite in both Mbeki and Zuma camps, Mbeki's well-known critics the SACP, Cosatu and the youth league will definitely push for Motlanthe for one of the two top positions. When Mbeki fired the deputy health minister and called for the ANC to discipline her, Motlanthe dismissed Mbeki's call saying she had not transgressed against the ANC constitution. Motlanthe succeeded Ramaphosa in 1997 and has gained enormous respect within the ANC. He is very knowledgeable of the traditions and dynamics of the ANC. Political scientist don't take his candidacy lightly saying he is a strong contender in the presidential race. Motlanthe has been nominated for the position of deputy president of the ANC by the regions of KwaZulu-Natal.

Cyril Ramaphosa: He's done it before and we are not sure if he will do it again. This is the man who lost to Thabo Mbeki after Mandela era. Former President Nelson Mandela wanted Ramaphosa to succeed him, but the people's vote went Mbeki's way! He left active politics to be a successful buisness man. Lawyer by profession, Ramaphosa was key negotiator during CODESA. He was also instrumental in the drafting of the new South African constitution. Ramaphosa is avoiding the same fate he suffered when he lost the chance to become president of the country. He has not shown any interest in campaigning for the top job! He is seen by many as the person who can unify the ANC and the country. The lates public figure to endorse him as a suitable person for the top job is Helen Suzman.

Nkosazana Dlaminini-Zuma: President Thabo Mbeki has expressed his wish for a woman president. This is the woman believed to be groomed to be the first woman president of this country. Those hopes were reduced by the ANC Women's League support Jacob Zuma. Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, who appeared disappointed said the final say would be made at the conference in Limpopo. In the Mandela administration, Dlamini-Zuma was the health minister. During her tenure as health minister, she made smoking in public illegal and was embroiled in controversy of funding SARAFINA, allocating millions to the project amid high unemployment and inadequate health care. She redeemed herself as foreign affairs minister. This department is by far one of the few progressive departments in government. Her name featured in many of the nomination lists, ahead of the Limpopo conference.